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Despite winning the $5k prize (thank you VIC) and generating a 32% return from Jan. to Dec. 2016 (vs. ~10% for the S&P 500), I consider TOWR a mistake, or at least an investment to
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<p>Despite winning the $5k prize (thank you VIC) and generating a 32% return from Jan. to Dec. 2016 (vs. ~10% for the S&P 500), I consider TOWR a mistake, or at least an investment to learn something from. I always do a post-mortem on mistakes and wanted to share those thoughts with the VIC community. </p>
<p>Today is the last trading day of the year and unless TOWR is taken over after the close, the CEO's stock appreciation incentive award (with a maximum payout of $20 million if TOWR is sold for +$55/share by 12/31/16) will expire worthless. The CEO will retire today, the CFO will take over as CEO and TOWR will remain an independent company. Quite a bizarre outcome given the large incentive package the board put in place for the CEO to realize maximum value for shareholders. </p>
<p>So what went wrong?</p>
<p>TOWR was the first auto supplier I ever analyzed and while I did a lot of work, my lack of experience in this industry was the factor that led to TOWR not producing the +100% return I thought was possible. </p>
<p>The Big 3 American auto OEMs (Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler) are far more consolidated than their supplier base and basically call the shots with respect to supplier M&A. Suppliers must essentially get permission from the OEMs to do a deal where they gain share, or they risk having business steered away from them. When MGA bought Getrag, they got into a new business (transmissions). But while a MGA/TOWR combination seemed logical, MGA would gain too much market share in metalforming and would ultimately be able to dictate higher pricing to the OEMs. Because automobile manufacturing is a very competitive/low margin business, the OEMs need to keep a tight lid on suppliers. In fact, TOWR has price declines baked into its contracts each year, and must continually get more efficient to mantain margins. A consolidated supplier base would not stand for this, and so the OEMs need to ensure the power dynamics never change. </p>
<p>When TOWR tried to sell Europe, they knew MGA would not be able to bid because the OEMs would get upset and there would be repercussions. TOWR hoped the secondary players would step up and pay what management felt was fair. But the bids fell short, and Europe was not sold. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, the CEO set the company up for a sale (sold off all the small foreign operations and JVs), but couldn't complete a final transaction. </p>
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<p>One thing saved my butt on this one: I waited to buy the stock when I felt there was no takeover premium at all in it.</p>
<p><!--StartFragment--><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-no-proof: yes;">"Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results. The better sales will be the frosting on the cake.”</span><!--EndFragment--> - Warren Buffett, Buffett Partnership Letters.</p>
<p>In closing, it was ultimately the attractive purchase price followed by a mediocre sale that led to the good result in what ultimately was an investment I put in the "mistake" category (I'm hard on myself, but there's no other way to grow and improve). </p>
<p>Going forward, I think a similary attractive entry price (low $20s) could once again lead to a good return in TOWR. The company is about to start generating strong FCF after spending a couple of years investing in capex to bring on new business. I think the old CFO/now CEO understands very well that TOWR will never get much of a multiple in the market. And a sale can't happen either. So his only option is to run the company for cash flow and take advantage of the depressed stock price by buying it back. I think that's what you'll see going forward and, if bought well, TOWR could once again generate a market beating return. </p>
<p>Happy New Year! </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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